Japan’s Statistics Bureau put the total population at 122.65 million on 1 September 2026, a fall of 540,000 people from the same month a year earlier. The same release gives a firmer figure for 1 April 2026, fixed against the 2020 census: 122,838,000 people, down 559,000 on the year, or 0.45 per cent.
Those two numbers come from the same monthly publication, dated 24 September 2026, and they are not the same kind of number. The September figure is a provisional estimate. The April figure is the confirmed one. The age breakdown below comes from the April figure, because the provisional estimate does not carry one.
The April 2026 count splits into three age blocks, and only the oldest one grew
On 1 April 2026 the Statistics Bureau counted 13,291,000 people under 15, down 356,000 on the year, or 2.61 per cent. The 15 to 64 block stood at 73,336,000, down 222,000, or 0.30 per cent. The 65-and-over block stood at 36,211,000, up 19,000, or 0.05 per cent. Inside that last block, the 75-and-over count was 21,531,000, up 479,000, or 2.27 per cent.
The three blocks add to 122,838,000, which matches the printed total, and I added them rather than assuming they would. Within the oldest block, the 75-and-over count is 59.5 per cent of the 65-and-over count, which is my own division, so more than half of the people counted as elderly here are in the older half of that block.
The same release separates nationality. Japanese nationals numbered 118,921,000, down 860,000 on the year, or 0.72 per cent. Foreign nationals numbered 3,917,000, up 301,000, or 8.32 per cent. The decline in the total is therefore smaller than the decline in the Japanese-national figure, and the gap is the foreign-national increase.
The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to peak in 2043, not at the end
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research published its national projection on 26 April 2023, working forward from the 2020 census to 2070. Its medium-fertility, medium-mortality table shows the 65-and-over count rising to 39,529,000 in 2043 and then falling every year after that, reaching 33,671,000 in 2070.
The share behaves differently. The 65-and-over share rises from 28.6 per cent in 2020 to 38.7 per cent in 2070, with no peak inside the table. So the count of older people turns down in 2043 while their share keeps climbing, because the working-age and child blocks shrink faster. I checked both columns across all 51 rows of the table rather than reading the endpoints.
The child share does turn. The 0-to-14 share falls to 9.1 per cent in 2064 and is 9.2 per cent in 2070, so the projection’s lowest child share is not its last row.
The projection crosses below 100 million in 2056
The same table gives 100,508,000 for 2055 and 99,654,000 for 2056. That is the first projected year under 100 million. By 2070 the projection reaches 86,996,000, against a 2020 base of 126,146,000.
| Year | Total (thousands) | 0-14 | 15-64 | 65+ | 65+ share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (census base) | 126,146 | 15,032 | 75,088 | 36,027 | 28.6% |
| 2030 | 120,116 | 12,397 | 70,757 | 36,962 | 30.8% |
| 2040 | 112,837 | 11,419 | 62,133 | 39,285 | 34.8% |
| 2050 | 104,686 | 10,406 | 55,402 | 38,878 | 37.1% |
| 2060 | 96,148 | 8,930 | 50,781 | 36,437 | 37.9% |
| 2070 | 86,996 | 7,975 | 45,350 | 33,671 | 38.7% |
The working-age block moves in the same direction as the total but further. Its share falls from 59.5 per cent in 2020 to 52.1 per cent in 2070, and its count falls from 75,088,000 to 45,350,000. The total itself falls by 39,150,000 across those fifty years, which is my own subtraction from the two rows.
The projection is built on the resident population, meaning people living in Japan for three months or more, foreign nationals included. It is one of nine basic variants, and the figures above are the medium-fertility, medium-mortality one.
The Statistics Bureau’s own compendium carries the same projection into its population-trend table, and the two agree where they overlap: the compendium’s 2055 row is 100,508,000, the identical figure to the projection’s. The compendium then continues past 2070, and its last projected row, 2095, gives 66,511,000.
The recorded peak was 128,057,000 in 2010, and the series starts at 55,963,000 in 1920
The Statistics Bureau’s long series for chapter 2 of its 2026 compendium Nihon no Tokei runs from the first census in 1920. The 1920 count was 55,963,000. The largest figure anywhere in that series is 128,057,000, at the 2010 census. The 2015 census came in at 127,095,000 and the 2020 census at 126,146,000.
The series also shows when the decline started being recorded rather than projected. Both change columns are already negative once in 1945, at minus 1,691,000 for the population change and minus 245,000 for the natural change, in the count taken at the end of the war. After that the population change is negative at 2005, where the table prints minus 19,000, positive again at 2010 with plus 26,000, and negative at every row from 2015 onward. The natural change stays positive until 2010, where it prints minus 105,000, and is negative at every row after that.
The last recorded row, 2024, shows what the fall is made of. The table gives a population of 123,802,000, a population change of minus 550,000, a natural change of minus 890,000 and a social change of plus 340,000, with 717,000 births against 1,607,000 deaths. Subtracting the deaths from the births reproduces the printed minus 890,000, and adding the social change to that reproduces the printed minus 550,000; both checks are mine. The prefecture table puts the same year’s national rate of change at minus 4.4 per 1,000 people.
Women have outnumbered men in every census since 1940
In the same table, men outnumber women in the four censuses from 1920 to 1935: 28,044,000 men to 27,919,000 women in 1920, and 34,734,000 to 34,520,000 in 1935. From 1940 the order reverses, at 35,387,000 men to 36,546,000 women, and it has not reversed again in any later row. The 2024 estimate gives 60,233,000 men and 63,569,000 women, a gap of 3,336,000, which is my own subtraction.
By prefecture the Statistics Bureau prints a sex ratio, men per 100 women, for the 2024 estimate. The national figure is 94.8. Only two prefectures reach 100: Ibaraki at 100.1 and Tochigi at exactly 100.0. The lowest is Nara at 88.7.
National density is 338.2 people per square kilometre, and Tokyo’s is 6,402.6
The 2020 census density for the whole country is 338.2 people per square kilometre. The national land area used for chapter 1 of the same compendium is 377,980.29 square kilometres, measured as of 2025. The census density figure was calculated on the 2020 area survey and, as the table’s own note says, excludes the Habomai group, Shikotan, Kunashiri, Etorofu and Takeshima.
Dividing the confirmed April 2026 population by that 2025 land area gives 325.0 people per square kilometre, which is my own calculation and is lower than the census figure of 338.2. The two are not comparable without saying why: they use different population years, different area years, and the census figure leaves out the islands named above. The gap is what happens when a falling population meets an area figure from a different year, not a correction to either number.
Density varies by a factor of roughly 96 across the prefectures, which is my own division of the highest figure by the lowest. Tokyo is 6,402.6, Osaka 4,638.4 and Kanagawa 3,823.2. At the other end, Hokkaido is 66.6, Iwate 79.2 and Akita 82.4. The national average of 338.2 sits closer to the low end than the high end, because the three densest prefectures are small in area.
Just under seven in ten residents were counted inside a densely inhabited district
The census does not classify people as urban or rural. It uses a defined unit instead, the densely inhabited district, described in the table’s note as adjoining basic unit blocks with a density of about 4,000 people per square kilometre or more, whose combined population reaches 5,000 or more at the time of the census.
In 2020 that district population was 88,286,000 out of 126,146,000, which is 69.99 per cent by my own division. Adding the prefecture column of the same table myself gives 88,287,000, one thousand more than the national figure, which is rounding rather than a different definition.
Two prefectures are close to entirely inside such districts. Tokyo’s 2020 census population was 14,047,594 and its district population 13,844,000. Osaka’s were 8,837,685 and 8,479,000.
Eight prefectures gained people between the last two censuses and thirty-eight lost them
Between 2015 and 2020 the eight that gained were Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Shiga, Fukuoka and Okinawa. Tokyo’s rate is the largest at 3.94 per cent and Shiga’s the smallest at 0.05 per cent. Okinawa’s is 2.37 per cent, and it is the only one of the eight that lies on neither Honshu nor Kyushu.
Thirty-eight prefectures lost population. Akita’s rate is minus 6.22 per cent, Aomori’s minus 5.37 per cent and Iwate’s minus 5.40 per cent. Osaka is in neither group: its printed rate is minus 0.0 per cent, from 8,839,000 to 8,837,685. Eight, one and thirty-eight add to forty-seven, and I counted the rows rather than the headline.
For a prefecture-level picture of what those figures look like on the ground, the island counts that Okinawa itself publishes are set out in Okinawa: 691 Islands Counted, 54 Designated, and 38 of Them Inhabited.
None of the four documents read here prints a world ranking
None of the sources read here rank Japan against other countries. The Statistics Bureau’s monthly release and the compendium chapters used above give Japanese figures only, and the projection is a Japanese projection. A world ranking would need a source that none of these four documents is.
The monthly estimate moves. The 1 September 2026 provisional figure will be replaced by a confirmed figure in a later release, and the confirmed series is rebased whenever a new census lands. The projection does not move on that schedule: it is dated 26 April 2023 and runs on the 2020 census.
Sources Checked
Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications — Population Estimates, release of 24 September 2026
Confirmed that the provisional total for 1 September 2026 is 122.65 million, down 540,000 year on year or 0.44 per cent; that the confirmed total for 1 April 2026 is 122,838,000, down 559,000 or 0.45 per cent; that the under-15 count is 13,291,000 (down 356,000, 2.61 per cent), the 15-64 count 73,336,000 (down 222,000, 0.30 per cent), the 65-and-over count 36,211,000 (up 19,000, 0.05 per cent) and the 75-and-over count 21,531,000 (up 479,000, 2.27 per cent); and that Japanese nationals number 118,921,000 (down 860,000, 0.72 per cent) against 3,917,000 foreign nationals (up 301,000, 8.32 per cent).
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.html
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research — Population Projections for Japan, 2023 revision, table 1-1
Confirmed the 2020 base of 126,146,000; that the 65-and-over count peaks at 39,529,000 in 2043 and falls to 33,671,000 by 2070; that the 65-and-over share rises from 28.6 per cent to 38.7 per cent with no peak inside the table; that the 0-14 share bottoms at 9.1 per cent in 2064 and is 9.2 per cent in 2070; that 2055 is 100,508,000 and 2056 is 99,654,000; and the 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 and 2070 rows used in the table above. Also confirmed that the projection covers people resident in Japan for three months or more, foreign nationals included, and that the table shown is the medium-fertility, medium-mortality variant of nine.
https://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2023/pp_zenkoku2023.asp
Statistics Bureau of Japan — Nihon no Tokei 2026, chapter 2, table 2-1 (population trend) and table 2-2 (population and rate of change by prefecture)
Confirmed the 1920 total of 55,963,000, the 2010 peak of 128,057,000, the 2015 and 2020 census totals, the population-change column at minus 1,691,000 for 1945, minus 19,000 for 2005 and plus 26,000 for 2010, and the natural-change column at minus 245,000 for 1945 and minus 105,000 for 2010; the 2024 row of 123,802,000 with a population change of minus 550,000, a natural change of minus 890,000, a social change of plus 340,000, 717,000 births and 1,607,000 deaths, and the national rate of change of minus 4.4 per 1,000; the male and female columns for 1920, 1935, 1940 and 2024; the 2024 sex ratio of 94.8 nationally, 100.1 in Ibaraki, 100.0 in Tochigi and 88.7 in Nara; the 2020 density of 338.2 nationally, 6,402.6 in Tokyo, 4,638.4 in Osaka, 3,823.2 in Kanagawa, 66.6 in Hokkaido, 79.2 in Iwate and 82.4 in Akita; the densely inhabited district definition and the 88,286,000 national figure against 126,146,000, with Tokyo at 13,844,000 and Osaka at 8,479,000; and that eight prefectures show a positive 2015-to-2020 rate, thirty-eight a negative one and Osaka a printed minus 0.0.
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/nihon/02.html
Statistics Bureau of Japan — Nihon no Tokei 2026, chapter 1, table 1-1 (area by prefecture)
Confirmed the national land area of 377,980.29 square kilometres as of 2025.
https://www.stat.go.jp/data/nihon/01.html
Last updated: September 2026
